U.S. Earnings Season, Fed Minutes, and Other International Developments: What's Happening in Global Markets?
This week, global markets will focus on significant economic developments such as the earnings season in the U.S., the Fed minutes, and the employment report for December. Additionally, expected resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, corporate dissatisfaction in the UK, and revenue expectations from German companies will also be on the agenda. Statements from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda and the U.S. plan to ease humanitarian aid restrictions on Syria are among other noteworthy global economic and geopolitical developments.
Important economic and corporate news will be monitored in the U.S. this week. Investors will closely watch the quarterly earnings reports of major companies such as Delta Airlines, Cal-Maine, Albertsons, Constellation Brands, KB Home, and Tilray. In particular, Delta Airlines' financial results will be an important indicator of the airline industry's performance. Additionally, other earnings reports to be released throughout the week may cause market fluctuations.
The economic calendar highlights the employment report for December, which will be published on Friday. According to economists' forecasts, a non-farm payroll increase of 153,000 is expected, while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain steady at 4.2%. Throughout the week, speeches from Fed officials and the release of the December FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will provide important insights into the central bank's monetary policy plans.
The Biden administration is reportedly preparing to ease humanitarian aid restrictions on Syria. According to the Wall Street Journal, this move aims to accelerate the delivery of essential goods without lifting sanctions imposed on the new government in Damascus. Easing aid restrictions is seen as a step towards improving the humanitarian situation in Syria.
The White House is cautioned about lifting broad sanctions until the policies of Syria's new leaders become clearer. This approach emphasizes the U.S. aim to protect its strategic interests in the region.
According to a Bloomberg survey, 2025 will be a strong year for the U.S. dollar and stocks. The latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey predicts that Donald Trump's policies will give momentum to growth in the U.S. economy, benefiting U.S. stocks and the dollar the most. 61% of participants indicated that the S&P 500 would finish the year on a high note due to robust economic growth and profit increases.
Participants also believe that the Trump administration's trade policies will have a positive impact on the dollar. However, some respondents also pointed out that the same policies could lead to a weaker dollar outlook. This situation reveals that investors have differing expectations regarding Trump's economic measures.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to resign from the leadership of the Liberal Party, according to The Globe and Mail. The report states that Trudeau is expected to announce his departure plans before the national group meeting scheduled for Wednesday.
Trudeau's potential resignation could signify a significant change in Canadian politics. Possible candidates to take over the Prime Minister's office and the leadership race within the Liberal Party will be key topics in the public and media discourse in the coming days.
In the UK, business sentiment has dropped to its lowest level in two years following unexpected tax increases in October. A survey by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) indicated that 55% of companies plan to raise prices, while 24% are considering reducing investments.
BCC Chief Executive Shevaun Haviland stated that this data clearly reflects the negative impact of the budget on the business community. The decline in companies' sales expectations and investment plans signals the challenges that the UK economy may face in the near future.
German companies are expected to increase their revenues despite economic contraction in 2025. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, earnings per share for companies in the DAX index could rise by more than 10%. This figure surpasses the projected growth rates for other indices in Europe.
Experts indicate that this growth will largely depend on a recovery in the automotive sector. However, risks such as dependence on the Chinese market and potential U.S. tariffs could affect the growth performance of German companies.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the timing of interest rate increases is contingent on economic and financial risks. Ueda highlighted the need for the central bank to be cautious in adjusting monetary support in response to future economic developments.
Ueda's remarks indicate that uncertainty remains regarding the steps to be taken in Japan's monetary policy. It is stated that the BOJ will act with respect to the risks considered and shape its monetary policy decisions accordingly.