FOREX NEWS SURVEY - Economists Forecast a 1.63% Increase in December CPI

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FOREX NEWS SURVEY - Economists Forecast a 1.63% Increase in December CPI

Foreks - The Foreks News inflation and dollar/TL survey results have been announced.
Economists' median monthly forecast for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December is an increase of 1.63%, while the average forecast is an increase of 1.64%.
Economists emphasize the importance of pricing behavior at the beginning of 2025 following wage and administered price adjustments, as well as the trend of inflation, stating that improvements in inflation trends will be crucial for the speed and magnitude of the Central Bank's interest rate cuts.
According to a survey conducted by Foreks News with 19 economists, the median forecast for the annual CPI data for December indicates an increase of 45.25%, while the average forecast points to an increase of 45.24%. Expectations for the highest and lowest monthly increases in CPI are set at 2.00% and 1.33%, respectively, with annual forecasts ranging from 45.76% to 44.50%. In last month's survey, the end-of-year forecast indicated an increase of 45.00%, while expectations ranged from 46.00% to 44.10%.
The CPI data for October, which was expected to rise by 2.00%, was announced as 2.24%, with annual inflation standing at 47.09%.
For the end of 2025, CPI expectations indicate an increase of 27.75%, with the expectation range between 39.00 and 25.00. The previous survey period had indicated an increase of 25.50% for the end of 2025.
Excluding energy, food, soft drinks, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, and gold, the CPI C Index recorded a monthly increase of 1.35%, while the annual expectation stood at 45.78%.

  • Dollar/TL Exchange Rate Survey
    Analysts expect the dollar/TL exchange rate to reach 43.6250 by the end of 2025. Among 12 participants in the questionnaire regarding next year's exchange rate expectations, the analyst with the highest prediction forecasted 45.7100, while the analyst with the lowest estimate projected 42.0000. In the previous month's survey, the end-of-year predictions for 2025 were set at 42.8750.
  • Economist Expectations
    Akbank's Chief Economist Çağrı Sarıkaya noted that despite the positive effects of the moderate trend in cost factors and the softening in demand, the high increase in unprocessed food prices and rigidity in service prices have resulted in a very slow and gradual improvement in the inflation trend in recent months.
    He highlighted the expectation of a correction in unprocessed food prices, which exhibit a volatile trend due to weather conditions, and an expectation for year-end inflation to remain below 45%. He stated, "However, more importantly, it will be the pricing behavior and trend of inflation at the beginning of 2025 following wage and administered price adjustments. The inflation trend will rise again in the first quarter of 2025, but the magnitude of this movement will largely depend on incomes and administered price policies. In this context, keeping the minimum wage increase at 30% and the ongoing controlled and moderate depreciation of the Turkish lira will ensure that the inflation trend in the first quarter of 2025 is lower compared to the last three years. However, due to persistently high inflation expectations and ongoing risks regarding pricing behavior, it is necessary to ensure that administered price adjustments align with the projected disinflation path. The improvement in the inflation trend will also be significant for the speed and size of the Central Bank's interest rate cuts."
    Çağrı Sarıkaya predicted that the disinflation strategy based on real appreciation will continue in 2025 and estimated year-end inflation to be at 27.5% within a framework where fiscal stance is aligned with the Medium-Term Program, and the monetary and macroprudential stance maintains the necessary tightness throughout the year to achieve mid-term targets.
    December inflation figures will be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) on Friday, January 3, at 10:00 AM.
  • Foreks News Inflation and Dollar/TL Survey Result Table: https://news-files.foreks.com/attachment/1735298807630_ENFLASYON.xls