Bitcoin Below $100,000: What’s the Market Expecting?
As low-volume trading continues in global markets due to the Christmas holiday, Bitcoin is experiencing calm price movements below $100,000. After starting the day at $99,400, Bitcoin dropped to $97,800 during Asian trading hours, reflecting a pullback of around 1.5%. The cryptocurrency registered a partial decline of 0.25% in the past 24 hours. Although Bitcoin rose to $99,900 this week, it struggled to step back into the $100,000 range. A decline in daily trading volumes has been observed recently, which appears to be limiting Bitcoin's upward movement. Despite the Fear and Greed Index remaining at high levels, there is a downward trend in market sentiment.
What is the current state of market sentiment regarding Bitcoin? Santiment explained how Bitcoin interacts with market sentiment through information shared on social media. On December 15, speculation about Bitcoin reaching $110,000 increased on social media, while the cryptocurrency peaked at $108,000, surprising the markets. The same scenario occurred when BTC reached $104,000, as people held expectations for $110,000, but Bitcoin retreated once again.
Based on past data, when analyzing price movements and market sentiment, it has been observed that Bitcoin moves contrary to market expectations. Currently, despite the market's high risk appetite and bullish expectations, experts are warning of a potential price decline.
Bitcoin dominance and exchange reserves show that Bitcoin's market dominance stands at 58.43%, indicating that investors hold more Bitcoin compared to other cryptocurrencies. Historically, when Bitcoin dominance falls below this level, the price of Bitcoin has also experienced a decline. However, in the current situation, as the price drops, dominance is increasing, reinforcing the expectation of a potential fund flow from the altcoin market to Bitcoin soon.
Data on Bitcoin exchange reserves indicates that reserves have decreased since February 2024, while the price has risen. This measurement reflects the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges, and the declining reserves suggest that people are moving their cryptocurrencies to cold storage, indicating a signal of rising momentum.
However, in recent days, there has been a temporary increase in exchange reserves. This was caused by large investors selling when the price was above $100,000. The current downward trend of this curve is considered a harbinger of an upcoming bullish movement. When assessing the data fueling the market's decline and rising expectations together, it explains Bitcoin's sideways movement.