BofA: China’s Exports May Rise in the Short Term, but Impacts Will Be Felt in Q2 and Q3 of 2025

Foreks - BofA economists Xiaoqing Pi and Anna Zhou reported that China's exports are expected to increase in the near term due to front-loaded orders ahead of potential tariff shocks expected next year. However, the economists noted that there would be a repayment of this front-loading between the second and third quarters of 2025, further exacerbating the potential effects of tariff increases. China's export growth in November remained solid as traders rushed to take advantage of the window before potential tariffs by the incoming Trump administration were implemented. Economists also highlighted that additional measures are expected to be taken by Chinese policymakers in the first quarter of 2025 to support import growth, following the recent comments from the Politburo.