WEEKLY OUTLOOK - Markets to Focus on Data and Interest Rate Decisions

Forex - Markets will focus on data and interest rate decisions from global central banks in the new week.
Domestically, important data will include the balance of payments, industrial production, unemployment, real yield rates of financial investment instruments, ISO Turkey Export Climate Index, turnover indices, retail sales, and construction cost index.
With the first meeting of the Minimum Wage Commission, the process to determine the minimum wage for 2025 will begin.
Abroad, analysts will closely follow consumer price data eagerly awaited ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate meeting next week.
Other highlighted data abroad includes wholesale inventories, producer prices, import prices from the US, consumer prices from Germany, consumer and producer prices from China, foreign trade, Sentix investor confidence index from the Eurozone, industrial production, GDP, industrial production, foreign trade from the UK, GDP, current account balance, producer prices, and Tankan from Japan.
The new week will also be quite busy regarding interest rate decisions from central banks. Decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as those from the central banks of Australia, Canada, Brazil, Switzerland, Taiwan, Serbia, Ukraine, and Peru will be displayed on the screens.
Monthly reports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will also be closely monitored, particularly by energy market traders.
December 9, Monday
-Domestic Agenda-
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will announce the real yield rates of financial investment instruments for November (10:00).
The ISO Turkey Export Climate Index, created in cooperation with the Istanbul Chamber of Industry and IHS Markit, will be announced to measure and track the business conditions in the main export markets of the manufacturing sector (10:00).
The Treasury will announce the average maturity, cost, and domestic debt rollover ratio for internal borrowing for November (17:30).
The Treasury will sell, for the first time, a bond indexed to TLREF with an expiry of December 6, 2028, paying a coupon every three months and maturing in 4 years (1,456 days).
-Abroad Agenda-
The new week will start with important data from Japan; final GDP for the third quarter, current account balance for October, and bank credit data for November will be published simultaneously (02:50).
Final construction approval figures for October will come from Australia (03:30).
Other expected significant data from the region will come from China; consumer and producer prices for November will be published (04:30).
The latest data from Japan that economic observers will follow are the current account and outlook indexes, as well as machinery orders for November (08:00, 09:00).
SECO will announce Switzerland's consumer confidence index (10:00).
Sentix will release investor confidence index data for the Eurozone (12:30).
Consumer and producer prices for November will be announced in Mexico (15:00).
Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden will give a speech on financial stability and the central bank's toolkit with respect to markets at an event hosted by OMFIF in London (16:00).
Eurozone finance ministers will convene to evaluate Draft Budget plans, the budget situation, and expectations of the Eurozone and make recommendations for 2025 (17:00).
Wholesale inventories and sales figures for October will be released in the US (18:00).
Other data to be tracked from the US includes the Conference Board Employment Trends Index and New York Fed's consumer inflation expectations (18:00, 19:00).
A meeting of the European Union (EU) Agriculture and Fisheries Council will take place.
December 10, Tuesday
-Domestic Agenda-
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will publish trade indices, industrial production, and labor statistics for October (10:00).
The Minimum Wage Commission will hold its first meeting to determine the minimum wage to be applied in 2025.
The Treasury will bring back to the market a bond maturing on September 10, 2025, with a maturity of 9 months (273 days) and a bond maturing on September 27, 2034, with a maturity of 10 years (3,577 days) with a fixed coupon.
-Abroad Agenda-
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will publish M2 and M3 money supply figures for November (02:50).
Trade figures for November will be monitored from China (06:00).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce the last interest rate decision of the year, followed by President Michele Bullock holding a press conference (06:30, 07:30).
At early hours for the region, final consumer price figures for November from the Netherlands will be announced (08:30).
Another final consumer price figure for November will come from Germany (10:00).
Italy's industrial production figures for October will be published (12:00).
NFIB will reveal its index reflecting the condition of small businesses in the US (14:00).
Consumer confidence index data from Mexico will be released (15:00).
Brazil, the largest economy in South America, will announce inflation figures for November (15:00).
US non-farm productivity and unit labor cost figures for the third quarter will be followed (16:30).
The US Treasury will announce the results of a 3-year bond auction (21:00).
The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting will be held.
The President of Portugal, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will visit the Netherlands.
December 11, Wednesday
-Domestic Agenda-
TÜİK will announce turnover indices, trade, and retail sales figures along with construction cost indices for October (10:00).
-Abroad Agenda-
Data on oil and petroleum products inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API), the largest trade group in the energy sector in the US, will be released (00:30).
Manufacturing and wholesale sales figures for the third quarter from New Zealand will be published (00:45).
November's unemployment rate for South Korea will be announced (02:00).
Japan will release producer prices for November and the results of the BSI manufacturing sector conditions survey for the fourth quarter (02:50).
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser will speak at the ABE Annual Dinner in Sydney (10:00).
Service sector activity data for October from Brazil will be announced (15:00).
Data on mortgage applications and direction of interest rates in the US housing market will be revealed (15:00).
The expected data of the day will come from the US; consumer prices for November will be closely monitored by the markets (16:30).
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce the last interest rate decision of the year (17:45).
The US Department of Energy (DoE) will release data on oil and petroleum products inventories (18:30).
The US Treasury will announce the results of a 10-year bond auction (21:00).
The US Treasury will reveal the budget figures for November (22:00).
Inflation data for November will come from Argentina, one of the countries facing significant inflation problems (22:00).
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will publish the Financial Stability Report (22:00).
The monthly report from OPEC, closely watched by energy market traders, will be released.
December 12, Thursday
-Domestic Agenda-
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will publish the balance of payments statistics report for October (10:00).
TÜİK will announce "Foreign Controlled Enterprise Statistics" and "Energy Accounts" for the year 2022, as well as "Regional GDP" data for the year 2023 (10:00).
The Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) will publish balance sheets for factoring, financial leasing, and financing companies for the January to October period (14:00).
The BDDK will announce weekly sector data (14:00).
The weekly data on money and bank statistics from the TCMB will be published. The TCMB will primarily monitor the movements of non-residents, reserves, monetary data, and the foreign exchange position of residents in the weekly bulletin (14:30).
-Abroad Agenda-
Retail spending figures for November with electronic cards from New Zealand will be announced (00:45).
RBA Deputy Governor Brad Jones will speak at the AusPayNet Summit 2024 (01:15).
Japan will publish weekly foreign share and bond trading data (02:50).
Australia's unemployment rate and employment figures for November will be released (03:30).
India will publish industrial production figures for October and consumer price data for November simultaneously (15:00).
The Netherlands will announce trade figures for October (08:30).
Germany will publish agricultural producer price data for October (10:00).
GDP, industrial production, service production, construction production, and foreign trade figures for October from the UK will be released simultaneously (10:00).
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce the last interest rate decision of the year (11:30).
Following the OPEC report, energy market traders will closely monitor the IEA's monthly report (12:00).
The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) will announce its interest rate decision (14:00).
NIESR will release its three-month GDP prediction for the UK.
Markets will focus on the European Central Bank's (ECB) last interest rate decision of the year. Following the decision, President Christine Lagarde will answer questions at a press conference as always (16:15, 16:45).
In the early hours of the day, the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) will announce its interest rate decision (00:30).
Industrial production data for October from Mexico and retail sales figures from Brazil will be released simultaneously (15:00).
Weekly jobless claims data will be announced in the US (16:30).
After consumer price data the previous day, analysts in the US will now focus on producer prices for November (16:30).
Construction approval figures for October from Canada will be announced (16:30).
Weekly natural gas inventory data will be released in the US (18:30).
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish Flow of Funds accounts for the third quarter of 2024 (20:00).
The US Treasury will announce the results of a 30-year bond auction (21:00).
An EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meeting will be held.
December 13, Friday
-Domestic Agenda-
TÜİK will announce data on poultry farming and milk and dairy production for October (10:00).
TÜİK will also publish the "Entrepreneurs and Business Demographics" report for 2023 (10:00).
-Abroad Agenda-
BusinessNZ manufacturing sector PMI and foreign visitor numbers for October from New Zealand will kick off the day (00:30, 00:45).
The Tankan Survey results, best reflecting Japan's manufacturing sector, will be published (02:50).
RBA Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter will speak at the University of Adelaide (04:00).
Other data to be monitored from Japan will be final industrial production and capacity utilization figures for October (07:30).
GfK will announce the consumer confidence index for the UK in the early hours of the day (03:01).
Final consumer price data for November will come from Spain (11:00).
The Eurozone's industrial production figures for October will be released (13:00).
Import and export price figures for November from the US will be announced (16:30).
Canada will release capacity utilization rates for the third quarter along with manufacturing sales-inventory and wholesale sales-inventory data for October (16:30).
The final data of the week to be announced will be the number of drilling rigs by Baker Hughes (21:00).
An EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meeting will be held.