FOREX NEWS SURVEY - October Current Account Forecast Indicates a Surplus of $1.3 Billion

Foreks - The current account survey has been completed.
The median expectation for the October current account is a surplus of 1.3 billion dollars, while the average forecast indicates a surplus of 1.268 billion dollars.
According to the survey conducted with 15 economists, the highest expectation for the October current account forecast is a surplus of 2.5 billion dollars, while the lowest expectation is a deficit of 253 million dollars.
In September, while a surplus of 2.85 billion dollars was anticipated for the current account, it was actually reported at 2.99 billion dollars.
The median expectation for the 2024 current account deficit among economists is 10 billion dollars. The highest and lowest forecasts were respectively indicated as a deficit of 8.5 billion dollars and 14 billion dollars. In the previous month’s survey, the year-end expectation was reported as a deficit of 12 billion dollars.
For 2025, the median forecast from 11 economists indicates a deficit of 17 billion dollars, with the forecast range between a deficit of 11 billion dollars and 25 billion dollars. In the prior survey period, the median expectation was indicated as a deficit of 19.7 billion dollars.

• Economist Expectations
  Özlem Derici Şengül, an economist at Spinn Consulting, noted that despite no significant change in export performance, the decline in gold consumption and the decrease in capital goods imports due to reconstruction in the earthquake region continue to lower the current account deficit, even with weak growth in tourism. She stated, "We expect this situation to continue in the coming months, with the current account ending the year at just above 10 billion dollars."
  Economist Özlem Derici Şengül pointed out that next year’s current account performance will be determined by how exports will shape in a post-Trump world following the Central Bank's interest rate cuts, mentioning that "Although exports may be negatively impacted, we expect that imports will not spike significantly, leading to a potential current account deficit of less than 20 billion dollars next year."
  The October current account data will be announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Thursday, December 12, at 10:00 AM.
  NOTE: Representatives of banks/intermediary institutions who wish to participate in the current account balance survey organized by Foreks News can send an email to neslihan.koroglu@forinvest.com.
  WARNING: Survey data must be used with the designation 'Foreks News Survey'.
• Foreks News Survey Results Table: