Bitfinex Releases Its 133rd Alpha Report
According to the Bitfinex Alpha Report, Bitcoin closed November with an impressive gain of 37.3%, marking one of the strongest months in 2024. Historical data suggests that as the dynamics of the bull market remain strong, surpassing the psychological level of $100,000 seems likely.
In the 133rd Alpha Report published by Bitfinex, Bitcoin ended November with a remarkable gain of 37.3% and a record closing at $96,506. Despite an 8.64% drop during the week, BTC showed a swift recovery and completed the second-best month of 2024 so far. This strong performance reaffirms Bitcoin's solid momentum. Historically, although December has been volatile for Bitcoin, it has provided average impressive returns of 38.86% during halving years. While current bull market dynamics remain robust, short-term volatility may be influenced by ETF outflows and profit-taking by long-term investors. However, increasing demand and strong market fundamentals support Bitcoin's potential for further gains and surpassing the $100,000 level.
As Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 target, the U.S. economy continues to show strong resilience. The supply from short-term holders (STH) is nearing a cycle peak at 3,282,000 BTC, indicating a rapid rise in retail interest. Historically, the final phases of bull markets begin when STH supply exceeds pre-halving levels. The current consolidation process is seen as a natural pause for both profit-taking and market demand rebalancing. With strong ETF inflows and growing retail interest, Bitcoin is one step closer to exceeding the $100,000 mark.
The U.S. economy is resisting with strong consumer spending, stable labor market growth, and moderate inflation expectations by late 2024. A 0.6% increase in income in October lifted consumer spending by 0.4%, while core PCE rose by 2.8% year-on-year. The increase in durable goods orders and a steady GDP growth of 2.8% in the third quarter is supported by strong wages and high corporate profits. In November, consumer confidence reached a 16-month high, buoyed by optimism in the labor market and inflation expectations that dropped to 4.9%. However, potential inflationary pressures from the policies of the Trump administration remain a source of uncertainty.
New regulations and developments in the crypto world have emerged. Last week saw notable events including Hong Kong's digital finance initiatives, the Celsius Network's bankruptcy resolution process, and regulatory changes in Russia. Hong Kong is reinforcing its goal of becoming a virtual asset hub by offering subsidies of up to 2.5 million Hong Kong dollars through its Digital Bond Grant Program to promote tokenized bonds. Meanwhile, Celsius Network made its second payment of $127 million to creditors, making progress in its bankruptcy process. However, its former CEO continues to face legal challenges that highlight the complexities of accountability in the industry.
Russia aims to support sector growth by providing regulatory clarity through a new law that recognizes digital currencies as property and exempts crypto mining from VAT. Meanwhile, the stablecoin market has reached a record value of $190 billion, with Tether's USDT accounting for 70% of this market. The efficiency provided by stablecoins in cross-border payments and the support from giants like Stripe and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) further strengthens their role in the traditional financial world. All these developments illustrate how innovation, regulation, and market dynamics in the crypto sector are shaping together.