Global Air Cargo Growth Continues to Rise in 15th Month, IATA Reports
According to IATA's Air Cargo Market Analysis, the air cargo market continued its upward trend in October, marking 15 consecutive months of growth on a year-over-year basis, with global Cargo Tonne-Kilometres (CTK) increasing by 9.8%. This performance was accompanied by a 5.7% month-over-month increase after seasonal adjustments. International CTK rose by 10.3% compared to the previous year, with all regions contributing to this growth. Notably, carriers from Latin America and the Caribbean led the expansion with a 17.6% increase, while there was a significant 15.3% rise in demand on the Middle East-Europe trade route.
Measured as Available Cargo Tonne-Kilometres (ACTK), global air cargo capacity reached new heights in October, increasing by 5.9% year-on-year. Despite a slight month-over-month decline after seasonal adjustments, 2024 emerged as a standout year for cargo capacity, with ACTK increasing by 8.1% since the beginning of the year.
Carriers in the Asia-Pacific region contributed the most to annual CTK growth, while North American carriers secured second place for the first time since August 2023. The growth from North American carriers was likely influenced by a three-day port strike in the U.S. and the Golden Week holiday in China, which may have increased demand for air cargo. European airlines accounted for a 16.6% growth, while the Middle East contributed 6.4%.
Strong demand on international routes was supported by the growing e-commerce market in the U.S. and Europe, along with ongoing capacity constraints in ocean shipping. Latin America and the Caribbean continued to lead the growth list, with North American and Asia-Pacific airlines also recording significant increases.
Air cargo load factors improved, indicating a potential increase in airline revenues and profitability. In terms of capacity, international cargo hold capacity has maintained year-over-year growth for 43 consecutive months, while dedicated freighter capacity has seen growth for seven consecutive months.
In terms of costs, global jet fuel prices decreased by 25.7% year-on-year despite a monthly increase, which is a positive development for airline operating expenses. Meanwhile, including additional charges, air cargo revenues increased by 1.2% month-over-month and by 10.6% year-on-year, surpassing 49% of 2019 levels.
Industrial production rose by 1.6% year-on-year, and despite a monthly contraction in global merchandise trade, it increased by 2.4% compared to last year. Global manufacturing activity expanded in October, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 50.9.
Consumer price inflation in major economies remained within central banks' target rates; while slight increases were observed in the U.S. and EU, Japan experienced a drop. China's low inflation rate raised concerns about economic slowdown, which could impact air cargo exports. Producer Price Index (PPI) trends varied; increases in the U.S. and Japan could influence production costs and air cargo demand, while deflation in China and the EU could lead to lower production costs and potentially increase exports.
Overall, the air cargo sector's performance in October underscores the continued demand for air cargo services despite volatile global economic indicators.