Consumer Price Index Surpasses Expectations with Unexpected Growth

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Consumer Price Index Surpasses Expectations with Unexpected Growth

Foreks - The consumer price index (CPI) recorded a monthly increase of 2.24% and an annual increase of 47.09% in November. In a survey conducted with the participation of 20 economists, the median monthly forecast for October indicated a 2.00% increase and an annual forecast of 46.72%. Market expectations foresee a 45.00% increase in the CPI by the end of 2024 and a 27.00% increase by the end of 2025.

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the change in CPI (2003=100) in November 2024 compared to the previous month was 2.24%, 42.91% compared to the previous year's December, 47.09% compared to the same month of the previous year, and 60.45% based on the twelve-month averages.

For the same month of the previous year, the main group with the least increase was transportation at 26.24%. In contrast, the main group with the highest increase compared to the same month of the previous year was education at 92.49%.

In November 2024, the main group that experienced the most significant decrease compared to the previous month was clothing and footwear at -0.25%. Conversely, the group with the highest increase compared to the previous month was food and non-alcoholic beverages at 5.10% (the indexes, weights, and change rates for the main expenditure groups are in Appendix Table-1).

As of November 2024, out of 143 main categories covered in the index (Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose - COICOP Level 5), 27 main categories experienced a decline, while 10 categories showed no change. An increase was observed in 106 main categories.

The core CPI indicator (B) recorded an annual increase of 45.68% and a monthly increase of 1.54%. Excluding unprocessed food products, energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and gold, the change in CPI in November 2024 compared to the previous month was 1.54%, 42.28% compared to the previous year's December, 45.68% compared to the same month of the previous year, and 60.56% based on the twelve-month averages.

Core CPI indicators and change rates (%), November 2024.