MARKET OVERVIEW - Nomura Assesses Continued Decline in China's Real Estate Sector by 2025

Forex - Nomura analysts stated that real estate sales in China rebounded in November, although headwinds continue. In the 20 major cities in China, new home sales increased by 25.7% year-on-year based on floor area last month, marking the largest increase since May 2023. The figures align with Nomura's expectations that the recent housing recovery may be longer-lasting than what has been observed in the past two years, particularly in large cities. However, analysts remain concerned that the increase may be short-lived. Nomura sees a risk of another real estate downturn in the first half of 2025 due to diminishing pent-up demand. Analysts believe that for Beijing to manage a genuine recovery next year, developers need to clean up their debt burdens.