French Prime Minister May Face Vote of Confidence This Week

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is on the brink of a vote of confidence following a controversial move to advance the social security financing plan without full parliamentary support. Barnier, who has been leading the minority government since the inconclusive general elections in September, could be ousted if opposition dissatisfaction results in a successful vote against him.

The social security financing debate, part of the government's 2025 budget plan, was scheduled for discussion in the lower house of the National Assembly on Monday. The far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, criticized various aspects of the budget plan, including the social security measures.

In an attempt to placate the RN, the prime minister’s office announced the cancellation of a proposal that would have reduced reimbursements for prescription drugs starting next year. Despite this concession, Barnier's position remains precarious.

If Barnier cannot pass the legislative agenda with majority support in Parliament, he may resort to using executive powers under Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to implement the measures without a vote. However, this action could trigger a vote of no confidence as early as Wednesday.

To survive the no-confidence vote, Barnier will need to avoid opposition from Le Pen's RN, as support from leftist parties seems unlikely. The outcome of such a vote could lead to the first successful no-confidence motion in France since 1962, when Georges Pompidou's government fell during Charles de Gaulle’s presidency.