SAMEKS Data Indicates Continued Contraction in Economic Activity
The SAMEKS data for November showed that the contraction in economic activity observed in the last quarter of the year continued in November.
It was stated: "The seasonally and calendar-adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index for November 2024 decreased by 0.5 points to a value of 47.9 compared to the previous month, maintaining its negative outlook during this period. During this period, the Services Sector SAMEKS Index decreased by 1.6 points to 46.9.
On the other hand, the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index recorded a recovery of 3.4 points compared to the previous month, rising to 49.4. The stagnation in business volume in the services sector continued in November, making it the fifth consecutive month of declining index. In the industrial sector, however, an increase in new orders and input purchases resulted in production recovery, yet the index remained below the reference value.
As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar-adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which recorded a decrease of 0.5 points to 47.9, indicated that the negative outlook, which began in July, continued into November.
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar-adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index increased by 3.4 points to 49.4 in November 2024 compared to the previous month. During this period, the new orders sub-index, despite a 5.1 point increase compared to the previous month, continued to lose momentum at 47.3. Input purchases rose by 0.5 points to 56.1, continuing to recover. The production sub-index, which surged by 6.3 points compared to the previous month, maintained a downward trend below the reference value at 48.5. The final goods stock sub-index, which stood at 47.0, presented a negative outlook for this period; however, the suppliers' delivery time sub-index increased by 3.4 points to 52.6, indicating recovery in firms' supply processes. The employment sub-index, which decreased by 2.6 points to 46.5, indicated that the demand for labor in the industrial sector remained stagnant. As a result of these developments, although a visible monthly recovery was recorded with the seasonally and calendar-adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index at 49.4, the downward trend continued in November.
Services Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar-adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index decreased by 1.6 points to 46.9 in November 2024 compared to the previous month. The input purchases, which rose by 3.9 points to 58.9 compared to the previous month, maintained an optimistic outlook during this period. However, the business volume's abrupt decline of 5.1 points to 40.4 indicated that firms brought forward their input purchases to avoid potential price increases after the new year. In fact, the final goods stock index, which increased by 2.8 points to 51.1 compared to the previous month, supports this view. The suppliers' delivery time sub-index, despite an increase of 0.7 points compared to the previous month, remained at 47.4, marking another unfavorable indication for the services sector. During this period, the employment sub-index, which fell by 5.6 points to 44.1, indicated that the demand for labor across the sector continued to decline. Thus, with the Services Sector SAMEKS Index at 46.9, the rather stagnant outlook persisted in November.
COMMENT: With the noticeable tightening of monetary policy, the challenges observed in market conditions during the second half of the year persisted in November, and the declining trend of the SAMEKS Composite Index reached its fifth consecutive month. During this period, the industrial sector exhibited a relative recovery compared to the previous month, while the contraction trend in the services sector was felt more acutely. Consequently, the contraction in economic activity observed in the last quarter of the year continued in November."