Goldman Sachs Unveils Oil Price Scenarios for 2025

According to Goldman Sachs' forecasts, Brent crude oil prices are expected to range between $70 and $85 next year due to excess demand and supply globally. In the worst-case scenario, where geopolitics come to the forefront and supply is disrupted, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the new U.S. administration increasing risks to Iranian supply, Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to rise to $100 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven stated, "We forecast Brent to average $76/barrel in 2025, peaking at $78 in June, before declining to $73 by December 2025. Our modest surplus of 0.4 million barrels/day (mb/d) in 2025 reflects our base scenario, where robust supply growth from the Americas and OPEC+ production increases outpace a flexible demand increase of 1.2 mb/d in Q1 2025. Presenting our balance for 2026, we expect Brent to decline to $71/barrel with a moderate surplus."

Additionally, in a scenario where the U.S. imposes a general tariff of 10%, Goldman Sachs predicts that due to broad tariffs reducing global gross domestic product (GDP) and oil demand by 1%, Brent prices will fall to $64/barrel by the end of 2026. "In a second downside scenario where OPEC+ eases production cuts by 2025, compared to our base scenario in Q1 2025, we anticipate Brent declining to $61 by the end of 2026," he added.