Base Metal Prices Fall, but Medium-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

Forex - While metal prices are declining, LME three-month copper has decreased by 0.5% to $8,997.50 per metric ton, and three-month aluminum has dropped by 1.3% to $2,617.50 per ton. Currently, copper is trading at $8,999.50, and aluminum is priced at $2,618.50.

JPMorgan (JPM) analysts predict that macroeconomics will dominate the metal market in the early periods of 2025 following a clear Republican victory in the U.S. presidential elections. According to JPMorgan, the market is expected to trend downward in the short term due to the risk premium being priced in for tariffs against China for a longer duration. However, the medium-term outlook appears more bullish due to the arrival of new stimulus measures from China and the potential groundwork for a recovery in the latter parts of 2025.

JPMorgan anticipates that the ongoing weakness in the short term will provide a good risk/reward entry point for purchasing copper given the supply constraints. They also argue that the high costs in aluminum have at least isolated the downside risk.