Association of Financial Institutions Economic Outlook Index Rises to 99.92 in October

The Economic Outlook Index of the Financial Institutions Association (FKB) increased by 0.39 points in October, rising to 99.92 points compared to September. The FKB-EGE has been calculated monthly since February 2015. The index, which had been rising until March 2018, started to decline from April 2018 and reached its lowest value in October 2018. After starting to rise again in November 2018, the index fluctuated based on the trends in the sectors that constitute it. In October, the FKB-EGE rose by 0.39 points to 99.92 points compared to September.

The statement mentioned: "The index, derived from data used in reporting and statistical activities within FKB through the Central Invoice Registration System (MFKS), recorded its lowest value at 97.57 points in May 2020 and its highest value at 103.59 points in March 2015. The index exhibits fluctuating trends based on the factoring sector's developments. Looking at the index's changes in recent months, it is observed that the index value, which was 100.59 in September 2024, increased by 0.17 points in October to reach 100.76 points.

The index derived from the data used in reporting and statistical activities within FKB through the Financial Leasing Contract Registration System (FKSTS) recorded its lowest value at 88.82 points in October 2018 and its highest value at 105.55 points in April 2023. According to the data obtained from the financial leasing sector, the index exhibits fluctuating trends based on sector developments. The index value, which was 102.32 points in September 2024, rose by 0.21 points in October to reach 102.53 points.

The index, derived from data used in reporting and statistical activities within FKB, recorded its lowest value at 95.24 points in October 2023 and its highest value at 106.52 points in December 2017. Looking at the data from the last months of the index, it is observed that the index, which was 95.67 points in September 2024, increased by 0.79 points in October to reach 96.46 points.

The Economic Outlook Expectation Survey of the FKB was answered by 85 participants between November 1, 2024, and November 11, 2024, and the results were evaluated by aggregating the responses of the participants. This research was conducted with company executives operating in the sectors of Financial Leasing, Factoring, Financing, Asset Management, and Savings Financing that are members of FKB. Additionally, participation was provided by FKB management and experts. The results of this research, which will be conducted regularly every month, aim to observe the expectations of FKB members regarding the economy and their sectors.

In the survey, sector executives' inflation expectations were asked for the end of the current month, the end of the current year, and the end of the following year. During the November 2024 survey period, when the participants' monthly inflation expectations were evaluated, it was observed that 14.3% of them expected inflation to be below 1.63, 19.5% expected it to be in the range of 1.64-2.27, 39% expected it to be in the range of 2.28-2.92, 23.4% expected it to be in the range of 2.93-3.56, and 3.9% expected it to be above 3.57.

Based on calculations made excluding outliers, the average inflation expectation for November was determined to be 2.48%. When examining the trend of six-month averages of monthly inflation expectations, participants generally expressed their anticipation for a decrease in monthly inflation expectations.

When evaluating participants’ inflation expectations for the end of the current year, it was observed that 3.8% expect it to be below 41.99, 19% expect it to be in the range of 42.00-43.99, 44.3% expect it to be in the range of 44.00-46.00, 20.3% expect it to be in the range of 46.01-48.00, and 12.7% expect it to be above 48.01.

Based on calculations made excluding outliers, the average inflation expectation for the end of the current year was determined to be 45.20% for the end of the year 2024 in November. When examining the trend of six-month averages of current year-end inflation expectations, it is observed that there was a fluctuating view in the initial months of changes in current year-end inflation expectations. In recent months, participants expressed their anticipation for a general decrease in current year-end inflation expectations.

When evaluating participants’ inflation expectations for the end of the next year, it was observed that 1.2% expect it to be below 21.93, 40.7% expect it to be in the range of 21.94-27.86, 28.4% expect it to be in the range of 27.87-33.81, 16.1% expect it to be in the range of 33.82-39.74, and 13.6% expect it to be above 39.75.

Based on calculations made excluding outliers, the average inflation expectation for the end of the next year was determined to be 30.52% for the year 2025 in November. When examining the trend of six-month averages of next year-end inflation expectations, it is observed that there was a fluctuating view in the initial months of changes in next year-end inflation expectations. In recent months, participants expressed their anticipation for a general decrease in next year-end inflation expectations.

In the survey, sector executives were asked about their expectations regarding the USD exchange rate for the end of the current month, the end of the current year, and the end of the following year. When evaluating participants’ USD exchange rate expectations for the end of the current month, it was observed that 9.5% expect it to be below 34.29, 29.7% expect it to be in the range of 34.30-34.59, 25.7% expect it to be in the range of 34.60-34.90, 28.4% expect it to be in the range of 34.91-35.20, and 6.8% expect it to be above 35.21.

Based on calculations made excluding outliers, the average USD exchange rate expectation for the end of November was determined to be 34.70 TL. When examining the trend of six-month averages of current month-end USD exchange rate expectations, participants generally expressed their anticipation for an increase in current month-end USD exchange rate expectations.

When evaluating participants’ USD exchange rate expectations for the end of the current year, it was observed that 13.8% expect it to be below 35.03, 42.5% expect it to be in the range of 35.04-36.27, 20% expect it to be in the range of 36.28-37.52, 13.8% expect it to be in the range of 37.53-38.76, and 10% expect it to be above 38.77.

Based on calculations made excluding outliers, the average USD exchange rate expectation for the end of the current year was determined to be 36.55 TL for November 2024. When examining the trend of six-month averages of current year-end USD exchange rate expectations, participants generally expressed their anticipation for a decrease in current year-end USD exchange rate expectations.

The survey also included questions regarding participants’ expectations for short-term commercial loan interest rates and sectoral average interest rates. When evaluating participants’ expectations for short-term commercial loan interest rates, it was observed that 7.2% expect it to be below 47.99, 42.2% expect it to be in the range of 48.00-50.99, 16.9% expect it to be in the range of 51.00-54.00, 18.1% expect it to be in the range of 54.01-57.00, and 15.7% expect it to be above 57.01.